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ST. LOUIS, MO (KTVI - FOX2now.com) -
The key to the weather pattern all Summer has been the battle between a strong low pressure over the Northeast sending the northwest flow over us for much of the summer. At the same time, a huge bubble of extreme summer heat has been hanging over the southwest and the southern plains. That heat popped up over us from time to time. Plus an "El Niño" has developed in the Pacific.
That will be a player for the Fall and early Winter. But as I have mentioned many times in my daily blog, I feel this "El Nino" pattern will break down and break down quickly as we head into the early part of winter. But, for Fall, it will be a player and a rather large one. Here's a look at my exclusive Fall forecast for St. Louis.
September 2009
In September, we will continue to see the effect of the two big players of Summer: the northwest flow and the summer bubble of heat. Both get slightly weaker but both still worth watching as they continue to play a major part in the overall pattern. The northwest flow will continue to stay in place for much of the month but the high will show its face from time to time. That means we will go from rather pleasant temperatures to a few days at a time of warm to hot temperatures. It is just impossible at this stage to call when those warm to hot surges will take place. Why? Because it is a pattern that does not get locked in but will bubble up and over us then quickly get pushed back to the south/southwest. When the month is done, temperatures will be near to slightly below average. . Rainfall is the real challenge in this forecast. Why? As we enter the Fall season, September is typically a very dry month. Fall is usually a dry season until we get into November. So you would tend to lean that way. However, with the northwest flow, you would expect to see some mean thunderstorms that feature heavy rain and lightning. I do think we will see some storms from time to time but they will have a fight with the overall climate of the season. By the end of the month, the pattern will be dry with below average rainfall. Keep a close eye on the vegetation. You may need to do some watering but it is a great pattern for the harvest season.
The main points for September 2009:
*More temperature swings as we run in the northwest flow. Sometimes all about summer, other times really nice temps and weather. Temps will average near to slightly below average
*Moisture pattern...look for some thunderstorms which is a little strange for September. But there will be some very dry times and watering will be in order.
* Some mini drought runs and rainfall will be a little below average by the end of the month.
October 2009
The ideas of September will continue in the month of October. That means the trend will be on the warm side for the middle month of Fall. I'm not talking about extreme heat by any means. The northwest flow that controlled the Summer should relax as will the entire pattern in the atmosphere over the North America. This will allow us to settle into a quiet Fall temperature pattern with near to above normal temperatures for the entire month. Will there be a few cool snaps? Of course, especially in the last 7 days of the month.
This relaxing of the weather pattern means that we will get out of the core northwest flow, which will shift off to the east/northeast. In turn we will settle into a dry weather pattern. Now we have to remember that October typically is a dry month anyway and this year it will live up to its billing. Nothing extreme, but rainfall will be running below normal for the entire month. But I also have to put a disclaimer in here and that is about the tropics. If something comes into east Texas, that could have some fun with the dry forecast.
The main points for October 2009:
*Limited temperature swings. One or two cool snaps, especially toward the end of the month. Overall, mild to warm days and pleasant nights
* The month will end up with above average temperatures. Maybe well above average
*Rainfall will be lacking. October is a dry month. A little drier than a typical October. We have to watch the tropics, especially the Gulf of Mexico. But still expecting this to be a quiet season.
November 2009
On to November, a month that typically is all about Fall until we get toward the end. That is when winter can show its face. But that is in a typical November in St. Louis and I don't think this one is typical. The relaxed pattern that set up October will run for the first half of November. That means a pretty nice run of weather for this time of year. What we have to watch is the "El Niño". This El Nino will be a weak to moderate event and a reaction event and that's why I don't think it will last very long. It will get us into part of the winter season but not the entire winter season. Whoa, I'm getting ahead of myself (clearly I'm well on the way to putting ideas together for the winter season). Back to November. As for the second half of the month, it will certainly get colder. It has to, but I don't see a big Arctic blast. Yes, it will be colder by the end of the month but overall this will be a rather mild November around St. Louis.
On to moisture. I can hear the snow bunnies already crying but hey it is only November, so no snow to write home about. Maybe a spell of flurries toward the cool snap at month's end. But overall any moisture we see in November will be rain. There may even be some thunderstorms as we get into a little second season. That is well documented in the Midwest. The first half of the month will be dry with more of what we saw in September and October. Then, the wet times will increase for the last 10 days of the month
The main points for November 2009:
*A mild to warm month for November. Not a lot of temperature swings. A rather quiet overall pattern
*A cool snap toward the end of the month...nothing to write home about
*Rainfall will be lacking. Yes, there will be a few season changing rains and watch for some thunderstorms. But overall the month is dry.
Now I know what you are thinking, "Hey Dave, what about the Winter? Any clues? Still a lot of work to be done on the winter forecast. The key will be the El Niño that is in place right now. I do not think this will last all winter long and that is a big player for the second half of the winter season. More to come...the winter forecast will be out in the middle of November. Stay tuned.
That will be a player for the Fall and early Winter. But as I have mentioned many times in my daily blog, I feel this "El Nino" pattern will break down and break down quickly as we head into the early part of winter. But, for Fall, it will be a player and a rather large one. Here's a look at my exclusive Fall forecast for St. Louis.
September 2009
In September, we will continue to see the effect of the two big players of Summer: the northwest flow and the summer bubble of heat. Both get slightly weaker but both still worth watching as they continue to play a major part in the overall pattern. The northwest flow will continue to stay in place for much of the month but the high will show its face from time to time. That means we will go from rather pleasant temperatures to a few days at a time of warm to hot temperatures. It is just impossible at this stage to call when those warm to hot surges will take place. Why? Because it is a pattern that does not get locked in but will bubble up and over us then quickly get pushed back to the south/southwest. When the month is done, temperatures will be near to slightly below average. . Rainfall is the real challenge in this forecast. Why? As we enter the Fall season, September is typically a very dry month. Fall is usually a dry season until we get into November. So you would tend to lean that way. However, with the northwest flow, you would expect to see some mean thunderstorms that feature heavy rain and lightning. I do think we will see some storms from time to time but they will have a fight with the overall climate of the season. By the end of the month, the pattern will be dry with below average rainfall. Keep a close eye on the vegetation. You may need to do some watering but it is a great pattern for the harvest season.
The main points for September 2009:
*More temperature swings as we run in the northwest flow. Sometimes all about summer, other times really nice temps and weather. Temps will average near to slightly below average
*Moisture pattern...look for some thunderstorms which is a little strange for September. But there will be some very dry times and watering will be in order.
* Some mini drought runs and rainfall will be a little below average by the end of the month.
October 2009
The ideas of September will continue in the month of October. That means the trend will be on the warm side for the middle month of Fall. I'm not talking about extreme heat by any means. The northwest flow that controlled the Summer should relax as will the entire pattern in the atmosphere over the North America. This will allow us to settle into a quiet Fall temperature pattern with near to above normal temperatures for the entire month. Will there be a few cool snaps? Of course, especially in the last 7 days of the month.
This relaxing of the weather pattern means that we will get out of the core northwest flow, which will shift off to the east/northeast. In turn we will settle into a dry weather pattern. Now we have to remember that October typically is a dry month anyway and this year it will live up to its billing. Nothing extreme, but rainfall will be running below normal for the entire month. But I also have to put a disclaimer in here and that is about the tropics. If something comes into east Texas, that could have some fun with the dry forecast.
The main points for October 2009:
*Limited temperature swings. One or two cool snaps, especially toward the end of the month. Overall, mild to warm days and pleasant nights
* The month will end up with above average temperatures. Maybe well above average
*Rainfall will be lacking. October is a dry month. A little drier than a typical October. We have to watch the tropics, especially the Gulf of Mexico. But still expecting this to be a quiet season.
November 2009
On to November, a month that typically is all about Fall until we get toward the end. That is when winter can show its face. But that is in a typical November in St. Louis and I don't think this one is typical. The relaxed pattern that set up October will run for the first half of November. That means a pretty nice run of weather for this time of year. What we have to watch is the "El Niño". This El Nino will be a weak to moderate event and a reaction event and that's why I don't think it will last very long. It will get us into part of the winter season but not the entire winter season. Whoa, I'm getting ahead of myself (clearly I'm well on the way to putting ideas together for the winter season). Back to November. As for the second half of the month, it will certainly get colder. It has to, but I don't see a big Arctic blast. Yes, it will be colder by the end of the month but overall this will be a rather mild November around St. Louis.
On to moisture. I can hear the snow bunnies already crying but hey it is only November, so no snow to write home about. Maybe a spell of flurries toward the cool snap at month's end. But overall any moisture we see in November will be rain. There may even be some thunderstorms as we get into a little second season. That is well documented in the Midwest. The first half of the month will be dry with more of what we saw in September and October. Then, the wet times will increase for the last 10 days of the month
The main points for November 2009:
*A mild to warm month for November. Not a lot of temperature swings. A rather quiet overall pattern
*A cool snap toward the end of the month...nothing to write home about
*Rainfall will be lacking. Yes, there will be a few season changing rains and watch for some thunderstorms. But overall the month is dry.
Now I know what you are thinking, "Hey Dave, what about the Winter? Any clues? Still a lot of work to be done on the winter forecast. The key will be the El Niño that is in place right now. I do not think this will last all winter long and that is a big player for the second half of the winter season. More to come...the winter forecast will be out in the middle of November. Stay tuned.
