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Dave Murray’s Exclusive Winter Forecast For 2008-2009
When looking at the global weather patterns this is what we call a "neutral" winter: no El Niño pattern, no La Nina conditions. That can play some big tricks on the weather but just because it is neutral does not make the forecast any easier. Winter is always the tough one of the group but I have been looking at a few analog years, clues from the past, that have opened up some neat ideas and these trends will help with the foundation of the forecast
December, 2008
Over the last few years December has been pretty easy to take, rather quiet and not so cold. Throw that book out the window. December is all about winter and it comes on strong and fast and will not let go. All signs pointing to the coldest December in the last 8 years. Temperatures will be cold--but just not cold...very cold. When we average out the month temperatures day and night will be well below the average. I would not be surprised to see a record of two to fall this December. Look for a prolonged run of cold air for much of the month. Yes there will be a few mild days but they will be few and far between. Expect big jumps in heating costs. This is a strange pattern for December but all part of a normal pulsing of the global weather patterns.
What about moisture: rain and snow. Typically when the flow from the North Pole opens up it is a dry air mass and that will be true this December. S o big cold does not mean big snow. However, a series of clippers will bring in re-enforcing cold shots and those are the systems we will be watching for to bring fast, dry-powder type snows.
The winter forecast always brings up one of the toughest long range forecast and that's--will it be a white Christmas. With the way I think this winter is going to kick into gear I don't think this Christmas will be green but we have an excellent shot of a white Christmas this year
Things to look for in December:
*** The great horned owls begin courting
*** Check out the sky--easy to spot the winter constellation Orion
*** The bald eagles start to arrive in good numbers
The December, 2008 breakdown:
*** It is looking like the coldest December so far this decade...a real shock to the system
*** Possible record cold on several days and plan the budget for a wicked rise in heating costs
*** Limited snow...its a dry cold...but I do think we will see a white Christmas
January, 2009
